tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53873427999313400672024-03-05T13:54:45.034-08:00GAA Pro StatisticsAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00423229330473488856noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5387342799931340067.post-22739812736605518212016-09-22T11:48:00.003-07:002016-10-01T03:16:54.515-07:00Dublin Mayo Score Concession Pictorial Analysis<div class="MsoNormal">
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<a class="DashboardProfileCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex u-linkClean" href="https://twitter.com/somearagaa" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; outline: 0px; padding-right: 5px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none !important;">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target" style="text-decoration: underline !important;">somearagaa</span></a><br />
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="text-align: justify;">I read a quote from a statistician recently which suggested that defending is more difficult to quantify than attacking and that only
twenty percent of statistics in sports relate to defending. I beg to differ. On
the contrary, in terms of how you can remedy problems and predict future
outcomes, I'd say that defensive statistics should account for a majority.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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A statistics program which I'll have on the market by the
end of October will have subtler scientific elements which should allow the
Homer Simpsons of this world to quantify who their best defenders are, but in
the meantime, we can stick with old(ish) school methods and simply go back over every score
conceded with a fine tooth comb and see which defender was culpable (something I think all serious managers should always
do).</div>
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<br />
In my initial post-match article on Sunday's All-Ireland final clash between Dublin and Mayo, amongst other things, I had noted that Dublin had
conceded six points and Mayo 1-3 needlessly and unnecessarily. Or as I call
them, they had conceded "Grade 3 Concessions". <br />
<br />
View full article over at Grassroots GAA: <a href="http://www.grassroots-gaa.com/dublin-mayo-pictorial/">http://www.grassroots-gaa.com/dublin-mayo-pictorial/</a><br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00423229330473488856noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5387342799931340067.post-74327724134864390872016-09-19T12:47:00.000-07:002016-10-01T03:18:44.072-07:00Why Mayo Came So Close...and Why They Didn't Win<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9oLDFjvB3OgdL2ZFv993c-_oxsTiIjway7K7jz9MHJivN31dclJOLqYmOEbeJbqOLxgMaJJngxTTnykcYjASw0tyWQsx5IxUD8bEBn40qznSQtI9ICcRuf5_rDA-IjRrjvgJEzV0EIjem/s1600/Dublin+Mayo+11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9oLDFjvB3OgdL2ZFv993c-_oxsTiIjway7K7jz9MHJivN31dclJOLqYmOEbeJbqOLxgMaJJngxTTnykcYjASw0tyWQsx5IxUD8bEBn40qznSQtI9ICcRuf5_rDA-IjRrjvgJEzV0EIjem/s400/Dublin+Mayo+11.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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@somearagaa</div>
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In my preview to Sunday's All-Ireland football final between
Dublin and Mayo I had suggested that it seemed unlikely to me that Dublin were
as far ahead of Mayo as was the general perception, and that being almost 3/1
on favourites flattered them somewhat. This was based on the fact that in
Dublin's four championship games against Mayo and Kerry in the last two
seasons, despite attacking phenomenally, that there had been some striking
pattern relating to defending and how they fared when they couldn't get their
kick-out off quickly.<br />
<br />
Read full article over at Grassroots GAA: <a href="http://www.grassroots-gaa.com/why-mayo-came-so-close-and-why-they-didnt-win/">http://www.grassroots-gaa.com/why-mayo-came-so-close-and-why-they-didnt-win/</a></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00423229330473488856noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5387342799931340067.post-20480478462344622392016-09-16T08:16:00.000-07:002016-09-16T11:40:19.624-07:00Are the Dubs Really Unbeatable?<div class="MsoNormal">
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As Mayo enter the cauldron of an
eighth All-Ireland final in 27 years, the bookies have summed up the general
sentiment around the country, that poor old Mayo will once again be lambs to
the slaughter. Dublin are almost 3/1 on favourites.<br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<span style="text-align: center;">On one hand it's difficult to
argue. In 31 championship and knock-out league games under Jim Gavin's
stewardship, their record stands at 29 victories, one draw and merely one loss.
Mayo, in eight attempts in league and championship have failed to beat them
once, earning one draw in their heroic comeback in last year's semi-final.
Could there be any hope at all?</span></div>
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<br />
Considering the fact that Mayo
drew with Dublin in last year's semi-final and led by four points well into the
second half of the replay you'd have to assume that it would be naive to assume
that they don't enter this Sunday's
final with at least a puncher's chance. The question of course is are
they as good or better under their current management team as they were under
their previous one?<br />
<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">Considering the fact that they've got to the final off the
back off a particularly soft draw and have failed to win Connaught for the
first time in six seasons, though not to say that they're not, there's no
evidence as yet that they are better or even as good as they were last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">In terms of knocking the Dubs off
their perch, however, there is one noteworthy statistic which could and most
certainly should be the crux of any attempt to do so. The term
"unbeatable" was being bandied around in 2014 before Jimmy
McGuiness's Donegal had other ideas, and though more mute than then, the same
word is being whispered again within the county. I beg to differ!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">A key factor in Dublin's success
under Jim Gavin has been that they manage, not alone to get a huge amount of
scores from getting the ball out quickly on kick-outs, they also manage to run
opposition teams into the ground, setting the foundations for their typical
60th minute plus onslaught (not the third quarter as is generally suggested).
However, a look at statistical analysis from Dublin's semi-final and final this
year and last against Kerry and last year's semi-final against Mayo throws up
some striking patterns. </span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">Taking into
account initial possession weighed up against the possession from an initial
turnover on Dublin's kick-outs, Dublin, as expected, recorded a positive result
on quickly hit short kick-outs over the course of those four games and never
once recorded a negative result (this figure accounts for scores gained upon
initial possession as well as conceded upon a first turnover).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">However, there is one frightening
pattern. Dublin have recorded a net loss on their own kick-outs to the midfield
area. In fact, not alone have they recorded a total net loss, they recorded a
net loss in each individual game. That is to say, that over the course of the Mayo
and Kerry championship games from the
last two seasons, the difference between Dublin's net score from their own
quickly hit short kick-outs, compared to their net loss from long kick-outs is huge.
They have accounted an average profit of 0.25 points per short kick against a
deficit of 0.29 points per long kick. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKouApOSVc3Xaufd9A7OT47CyAtY5UhFRQyl2l_2s5hDMbid3GbSHUhaHTdIrAT_YJg4dXMzRrWzFfEWxyvsTTmQ47QJQ47nU44PxNA_5uPe_c_0qwzhm2ZJLfWTlL0Im5AlY7ILdgbuEc/s1600/Dublin+Mayo+6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="92" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKouApOSVc3Xaufd9A7OT47CyAtY5UhFRQyl2l_2s5hDMbid3GbSHUhaHTdIrAT_YJg4dXMzRrWzFfEWxyvsTTmQ47QJQ47nU44PxNA_5uPe_c_0qwzhm2ZJLfWTlL0Im5AlY7ILdgbuEc/s400/Dublin+Mayo+6.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">That's right. Based on these games, if
you can make Dublin go long on their kick-out instead of getting off a quick
one to the full back line, you stand to avoid conceding a point on average on every
four short kick-outs and gaining a point on average on one in every three. In
statistical terms that's a total Estimated Value of over a point per two kick-outs.
Dublin's score concession on delayed kick-outs to their half back line is even
worse than on long kick-outs. Obvious conclusion? Try to press Dublin high and
don't let them get the short kick-out off.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">All things considered, that the only team to even muster up a draw with Dublin
in their last fifteen championship or knock-out league matches would mutiny on
their manager in the aftermath appears baffling, all the more so when you look
at the finer statistical details. For the only time in Jim Gavin's reign as
Dublin manager, when Mayo drew with them last year, it was Dublin's opposition (Mayo)
and not Dublin who did the overrunning of the opposition late on, overturning a
seven point deficit. </span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">The devil, as my grandfather used to say, is in the
detail. In that entire game, only once did Mayo allow Dublin to get their
kick-out off quickly. Not alone did they not allow Dublin to pummel them with
scores from their own short kick-out, they also didn't allow Dublin run them
into the ground. Alas, Mayo made the late surge. This finer detail may well
have gone unnoticed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">Whether or not Mayo's current management
team recognise the significance of this factor remains to be seen. In the
league encounter they went for the opposite approach, drawing their players en
masse into the defence for Dublin's kick-outs. Though less romantic to watch,
there is a logic of sorts to this. You try to get your team behind the ball
before the Dubs over run you and say "right, here we are, get past us if
you can". In the league encounter Dublin did so for a mere nine points.
Mayo, however, only scored seven ! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">While I wouldn't write this off
entirely as a strategy, it's noteworthy that Jimmy McGuinness's Donegal tried it in 2011 when Dublin beat them. In
2014 when Donegal won, they pressed them high up, made them go long, pummelled
them on the long kicks and beat them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">There are no guarantees in
football. You can only weigh up the
logic pertaining to the previous encounters and make as balanced an assessment
as possible regarding your strategy. However, considering that the only side to
beat Jim Gavin's men in championship football to date forced them to go long,
as did Mayo when they drew with them last year, lends itself to the argument
that balanced assessment suggests it's the way to go.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="MsoSubtleEmphasis">Considering the fact that the 6'5" Barry Moran more or less played as a sweeper
against Tipperary in the semi-final and that they tend to attack in waves, Mayo
would be perfectly well set up to push him into midfield for the kick-outs and
go man on man attempting to force Dublin long on their own kick-outs (Tom parsons at 6'3" is in instead of Moran but could fill the same role). Of
course, they did something along these lines last year and still didn't win.
They came as close can be though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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All evidence suggests that if Mayo choose to
do so on Sunday and proceed effectively, they'll be in with
significantly more than a puncher's chance.<br />
<br />
Follow me on Titter <a class="DashboardProfileCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex u-linkClean" href="https://twitter.com/somearagaa" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; outline: 0px; padding-right: 5px; text-decoration: none !important;">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target" style="text-decoration: underline !important;">somearagaa</span></a></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00423229330473488856noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5387342799931340067.post-53810964024885644502016-09-16T07:54:00.000-07:002016-09-16T11:39:16.242-07:00Could Dublin's Defending be Their Downfall?<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMDKlTuZC1RJS0s-BZq1LmzyJ2QV2UWzn-Tw4aL3EMsvXjSF-vI0ocjp8Cf43tU29zEyBWP6bZvoOuqU8YYPgIuD6FPV5RkAC22W6rhAW_H7qAyN6QX3xFAp4pkz4eXwHyeipt6Nuugy7d/s1600/Dublin+Mayo+4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMDKlTuZC1RJS0s-BZq1LmzyJ2QV2UWzn-Tw4aL3EMsvXjSF-vI0ocjp8Cf43tU29zEyBWP6bZvoOuqU8YYPgIuD6FPV5RkAC22W6rhAW_H7qAyN6QX3xFAp4pkz4eXwHyeipt6Nuugy7d/s400/Dublin+Mayo+4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Considering the fact that Dublin under Jim Gavin to date, in
four seasons, have a lost just single game in 31 championship and knock-out
league matches and that Mayo have somewhat snuck into the final having failed
to win Connaught for the season in six, it's easy to see why Mayo are such
significant underdogs coming into this Sunday's final. </div>
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There's no doubting that Dublin, not alone have immense fire
power, but their semi-final comeback against Kerry illustrates that they have
huge levels of composure and character. That's not to mention the lesser
commented fact that there is unprecedented technical detail gone into the
manner in which they attack, pulling key forward threats into wide positions,
creating ample space for defenders, midfielders and other forwards to attack
into more space in the centre. All things considered, they're a pretty
phenomenal force to be reckoned with.<br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<span style="text-align: center;">While their attacking prowess is well noted, could there be
however, chinks elsewhere that Mayo could potentially exploit? Let's not
forget, after all, that it's only a year since they drew the first semi-final
and led by four points coming well into the second half of a replay. Were these
displays flash in the pan stuff by Mayo, or could they potentially be closer to
the Dubs than many people imagine?</span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<span style="text-align: center;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span></div>
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In considering this question there are two key pieces of
statistical analysis worth considering, one of which we'll look at in greater
detail. Initially, however, it's worth considering the fact that over the
course of Dublin's two championship games with Mayo last year they conceded a
considerable net loss in scores when they had to play their own kick-outs long.
That is compared to a significant profit when they managed to get their
kick-outs off quickly to their full back line. Interestingly, the exact same
patterns have shown up in each of Dublin's games with Kerry this year and last
year. So if Mayo can, as they did last year, prevent Dublin from getting the
short kick-out off and force them long or to try ropey kicks to the half back
line (this also showed up a significant net loss for Dublin over the four
aforementioned games) then they'll be in with a chance.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While much has been made of Dublin's attack there are,
however, significant factors relating to their defending which raise serious
question marks. One of the key statistics which I suspect I may be unique in
taking is that I rank every score conceded into one of three categories : Grade
1, Grade 2 or Grade 3. A "Grade 1" concession is where the opposition
attacked so methodically that it would be difficult to blame any individual for
the concession of the score. A "Grade 2" is where the opposition have
taken on a defender/other and got past them in order to score. A "Grade
3" is where the opposition managed to get a score without having to directly
take on and beat the opposition. Essentially it means an unmarked player has
received the ball and scored or an attacker who wasn't running towards goal/was
running straight into more than one defender was fouled for a scored free. In
technical defending terms, I'd rank these score concessions as criminal.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are two values in collecting such statistics. One is
that it pinpoints the individuals who are being breached for scores and how
culpable they are. Secondarily, a high proportion of these concessions
pinpoints an overall technical and structural issue with the defence. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Just to put things into perspective here, when Jimmy
McGuiness's Donegal won the All-Ireland in 2012 they averaged less than a
single "Grade 3" concession per game. Mickey Harte's Tyrone in 2008
conceded less than two. When Mayo put 1-15 past Dublin in the replay last year
a massive ten points which Dublin conceded were "Grade 3", nine of
which had accounted for Mayo having a four point lead midway through the second
half.<br />
<br />
That is to say that on ten occasions when Mayo scored, they didn't have
to beat a single player to do so! Typically, they held possession long enough
for Dublin to leave a player free within point scoring distance. In case
there's a lack of clarity here in terms of comparisons with Donegal or Tyrone,
the majority of these were scored from outside the front line of Dublin's
blanket defence.<br />
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
There is a further statistic which should also be of concern
to Dublin. That is that almost across the board I've found that short kick-outs
that aren't played quickly tend to result in less scores gained than they do in
scores conceded upon the initial turnover. That is to say, that broadly
speaking, my statistics have found that it should be safe to allow the
opposition play a kick-out to their full back line as long as they don't do it
quickly and catch you off your guard. You're essentially saying to the
opposition, "have it, come on, break us down".<br />
<br />
However, in Dublin's
semi-final against Kerry they allowed Kerry to do this ten times. Kerry scored
a whopping five points from these and conceded none upon turnover. That's a
result that bucks all statistical trends. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Put these three pieces of statistical analysis together and
you have a potentially lethal cocktail. Figures from their semi-final with
kerry suggest that Dublin are incapable of consistently preventing a good
opposition from scoring, even when they allow them to have possession. Last
year's two semi-finals with Mayo illustrate that Mayo have the capacity to
exploit this element. Prevent Dublin from hitting short kick-outs on top of
exploiting this element and you could really put them on the back foot.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of course, all three of these elements were in force when
Mayo failed to beat Dublin last year. Therefore there's every chance that Mayo
could get these things right and still fail to beat them. The essence of
Dublin's brilliance is that they appear to have a philosophy of "whatever
you score, we'll score more", and essentially they almost always do.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bearing these factors in mind, however, in statistical terms, all things being equal
to last year's initial encounter, if Mayo can get these things right, as they
did last year, the difference in winning two extra breaks on kick-outs to
midfield would give you a statistical calculation of an expectancy of a Mayo
win.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
The question remains, will their management team be as
efficient or more so than last year's in these regards, and if so, will they
get the extra break or two required to turn the tables?<br />
<br />
Follow me on Twitter <a class="DashboardProfileCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex u-linkClean" href="https://twitter.com/somearagaa" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; outline: 0px; padding-right: 5px; text-decoration: none !important;">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target" style="text-decoration: underline !important;">somearagaa</span></a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00423229330473488856noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5387342799931340067.post-37820599474600002852016-09-16T07:08:00.001-07:002016-09-16T11:40:00.066-07:00How the Sweeper Will Affect Sunday's All-Ireland Final!<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgBRbGF_7_Sb0jPQw7fru74T59pScljA5eEvUmHWuStNGv3kASyjDWVkacsYjqdjx_g5_al5IM70CMFwQgI2jRKYb5597tsIuFDLDgNCVJwMhFjr-shVK-7uYNb97MQkePDanoXSVyC9OV/s1600/Screenshot+Cian+O%2527Sullvan.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgBRbGF_7_Sb0jPQw7fru74T59pScljA5eEvUmHWuStNGv3kASyjDWVkacsYjqdjx_g5_al5IM70CMFwQgI2jRKYb5597tsIuFDLDgNCVJwMhFjr-shVK-7uYNb97MQkePDanoXSVyC9OV/s400/Screenshot+Cian+O%2527Sullvan.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Since Armagh arrived on the scene implementing what has now
become known as the blanket defence and Tyrone applied it to devastating effect
in 2003, Gealic football tactics have evolved significantly. This evolution is
now close to the point I had long pontificated was a natural evolution whereby
most teams are now applying a sweeper, even the mighty Kingdom. The interesting
point to note, however, is that while all sweepers may appear equal, some are
more equal than others! </div>
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The tactical scenarios which saw a sweeper at both ends for
Dublin's semi-final against Kerry and will almost certainly be replicated in
this Sunday's final allude to a bigger theoretical, structural set up than may
appear to be the case at a glance. The case of Dublin "sweeper" Cian
O'Sulivan alludes to the matter at hand.</div>
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I have argued, until recent tactical developments at least,
that the application of a sweeper was simply a very logical tactical evolution
and procedure. The reason is very simple.<br />
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By applying a sweeper you had always
set the field up in a manner which was tactically favourable to your own team.
The reason for this is simple. If you plan to implement a sweeper and the opposition
don't (systematically), then you're looking at a scenario whereby your defence
is set up from a starting point of seven defenders versus six forwards while
theirs is set up with from a starting point of six defenders versus five
forwards. It doesn't take a rocket scientist or even a great tactical
theoretician to work out that the side defending seven versus six are at an
automatic advantage. </div>
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There's a basic principle in football, as well as all field
sports with a goal at both ends for that matter, that you want to attack into
space and defend in a compact environment. The side defending seven on six are
automatically set up in a more
compact environment and are attacking
into a more spacious one. There's less space for the opposition to attack into
and more space for their own forwards to operate into. Bring an attacking half
back line and midfield into the fray and you're perfectly well set up to
overrun the opposition's spacious defence.</div>
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It's a tactic which was being used effectively by many
counties in the mid to late noughties, went out of vogue, and has come back
with a vengeance. I've lost count of how many games I've seen where the simple
difference between the two sides was that one were defending seven versus six
while the other were defending six versus five. That's not to mention the fact,
of course, that by systematically applying a sweeper you're guaranteed that
your sweeper is actually trained as a sweeper. The opposition's has generally just
happened to find himself as a "sweeper". The most blatant example I
ever saw of this was the minor All-Ireland final in 2010. Though Cork almost
made a last gasp comeback, a Tyrone side who I considered to be technically inferior
outmanoeuvred them with the Tyrone sweeper conducting the orchestra from the
back. A spare Cork defender at the far end was just that, a spare defender.
With the greatest of respect to him, he had clearly never been instructed to
play as a sweeper before and quite possibly had never done so.</div>
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So this all begs a question. Do Dublin play a sweeper? Well,
they do and they don't. They don't drop a man back from their forward line.
They do, however, have a "sweeper" in Cian O'Sullivan. That is to say
that he's not a sweeper in the strictest sense. In the strictest sense he's a
centre back. That's where he'll line out and that's where he plays. Jim Gavin
knows, however, that no opposition that Dublin face will play six textbook
forwards so they will always have a spare defender. <br />
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This is in stark contrast
to the mid to late noughties when Dublin were the last side in the
country to adopt a blanket defence and no plans appeared to have been made for
this tactical element and Dublin failed year after year to beat serious
opposition outside Leinster. In the 2007 Leinster Final against Laoise in order
to stifle this, Pillar Caffrey sent Brian Cullen up to mark the Laoise sweeper.
While it actually worked on the day, in theoretical terms it was a terribly
flawed tactic. That is to say that they allowed Laoise to attack five on five
while they attacked seven on seven. It may well have stifled Laoise's tactical
dominance on the day, but can you imagine Dublin applying the same principle
against Kerry? Starting to see why they could steamroll Leinster in the
noughties but never make an impact outside of that?</div>
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Under the current regime Cian O'Sullivan is very much
planned to be a centre back come sweeper. That is to say that it doesn't matter
whether it's the opposition's number 11
or not who drops back, the Dublin defence manoeuvre that it's O'Sullivan is
sweeper. To that end he is, without inverted commas, a true sweeper.</div>
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To that end, the basic tactical structure appears to favour
Mayo in numerical/space terms but they don't have the advantage of the
opposition utilising a novice sweeper. All things considered, you can expect
the performances and defensive marshalling of the respective sweepers,
O'Sullivan for Dublin and Kevin McLoughlin or Barry Moran for Mayo, to be
crucial come this Sunday's final.</div>
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If, however, Dublin being set up six versus five at the back
appears to put them on the back foot in a tactical sense from the off, how come
they haven't lost a championship match to date in the seasons since they've
systematically applied O'Sullivan in this role and how have the evolving
tactics changed my views on this matter? Because amongst some subtler details
the most significant difference in Dublin's successful strategy under Jim Gavin
has been their capacity to get the ball back into play quickly on kick-outs
asap and overrun opposition teams before they have the chance to get numbers
behind the ball. Though there are other subtler elements, take this factor out
of their current tactical set up and they aren't massively ahead of where they
were under Pillar Caffrey. </div>
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So how does this relate to the six on five at the back being
an advantage? Because it allows Dublin a free man in acres of space to receive
the quick kick-out and break up field. And this is the crux of Dublin's game
plan. To this point, the ability retain possession on quick kick-outs has more
than offset the seven on six/six on five dynamic. While applying a sweeper at
the back offers security in one sense against the Dubs, on the other hand it
could play right into their strategy, making it easier to retain possession
quickly on kick-outs.</div>
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It's a delicate strategic balance and how much Dublin having
the spare man at the back on their own kick-outs is offset by the value of Mayo
having a more compact defence will go a long way to deciding who lifts the Sam
Maguire Cup on Sunday.<br />
<br />
Follow me on Twitter <a class="DashboardProfileCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex u-linkClean" href="https://twitter.com/somearagaa" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; outline: 0px; padding-right: 5px; text-decoration: none !important;">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target" style="text-decoration: underline !important;">somearagaa</span></a></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00423229330473488856noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5387342799931340067.post-34341272453389330812016-09-16T07:08:00.000-07:002016-09-16T11:39:34.151-07:00Do Mayo Really Bottle in Finals?<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnTrEwdTMcMgOWWerDXsSv5Y3sRukl_A-RvTw-43cW6wU6J3vVLfaSXsE1FZXJy1aFK1rpYBng6sSqOe7-gWIlGr0mRaQ-WTExXX5bzeGAOpl7gyV0yrEBRbB-mw8TgohTiS94mRNxIOVw/s1600/11591194625_d37103c465_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnTrEwdTMcMgOWWerDXsSv5Y3sRukl_A-RvTw-43cW6wU6J3vVLfaSXsE1FZXJy1aFK1rpYBng6sSqOe7-gWIlGr0mRaQ-WTExXX5bzeGAOpl7gyV0yrEBRbB-mw8TgohTiS94mRNxIOVw/s1600/11591194625_d37103c465_n.jpg" /></a></div>
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It's now 27 years since Mayo lost the first of what would be
a startling seven All-Ireland finals on the trot from their 1989 loss to Cork
to their 2013 loss to Dublin. The theory has long since followed that they
bottle in finals, something which obviously doesn't auger well for this
Sunday's final clash with Dublin. Is it, however, really credible that seven
different teams from the same county, spanning 24 years could really have some
sort of culturally shared psychological weakness which prevents them from
producing their best stuff on the big day? Or that the weight of history now
weighs so heavily on their shoulders that they have come to be chronic chokers
on the big stage? At face value it certainly appears as though there could be.
To lose seven finals out of seven, all things being equal, the chances of it
merely being a coincidence runs at less than one percent.<br />
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The question, however, is this : have all things been equal?
A significant factor to take into account in all of this is that they qualified
for the first three of these finals off the back of an antiquated provincial
system. If we're to exclude London as statistically insignificant (they have
lost the first round 41of 42 years in Connaught) if 32 teams of roughly equal
ability were to enter the All-Ireland in such a system, teams coming from the
province of five would expect to have a 12.5 percent chance of reaching the
All-Ireland final, while teams coming from the province of twelve, for example,
would expect to have just over a three percent chance.<br />
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That is to say that
Connaught champions typically had to win three matches to reach the All-Ireland
final while Leinster teams, for example, typically had to win five. This made
it massively disproportionately easier for the Connaught champions to reach an
All-Ireland final when there would have been no statistical evidence that
they'd have been one of the best two sides in the country. To that end, it
would have been highly likely for teams coming from Connaught to reach more finals than their ability would
have warranted, making it highly likely that they'd have been beaten by
superior teams who came through much tougher draws when they got there.</div>
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Furthermore, however, all things weren't equal. In reaching
the first of these three finals they had beaten the Ulster champions in the
semi-finals. Ulster was statistically even weaker than Connaught during this
period. In 1989 when Mayo reached the first of these finals, they went through Ulster
champions, Tyrone. At this point, Ulster champions hadn't beaten a single
Munster or Leinster champion in championship football in the 21 previous years.
In 1997 they had the fortune of meeting Offaly as Leinster champions in the
semi-final. Despite Offaly winning Leinster, you'd have to imagine they'd have
fancied their chances more against Offaly than they would have done against
Meath or Dublin, the previous two All-Ireland champions.</div>
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So not alone were Mayo coming out of a small and weak
province, on some occasions they faced soft semi-final opposition too. That is
to say that Leinster or Munster champions would typically have had to have won
at least two tough games to reach the All-Ireland final. Mayo would have to beat
one, and in some cases none. The real pretenders to the throne, having come
through much tougher passages, awaited in the final!</div>
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Yes, in 1996 they beat Kerry in the semi-final and they may
well have merited their place in the final on this occasion. However, it must
also be noted that this was the beginning of a resurgent Kerry, 1996 being
their first Munster win in five years. Starting the following year when they
would beat Mayo in the third of Mayo's septology of final losses, Kerry would
go on to dominate the following thirteen years with six All-Ireland wins. </div>
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What is particularly noteworthy in terms of Mayo's more
recent final losses is the fact that that victory over Kerry in 1996 was, in
fact, the last time Mayo have beaten them in championship football. In six
championship attempts between 1997 and 2014 Mayo have lost six from six to
Kerry. There is simply no evidence to suggest that they bottled in the finals
against Kerry in 2004 or 2006. These losses were simply part of a pattern of
inferiority against the Kingdom. For example, they were beaten by 1-20 to 1-11 by
Kerry in the 2011 semi-final. </div>
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And move forward to their 2012 and 2013 losses to Donegal
and Dublin respectively. It's almost certainly fair to say that James Horan's
stewardship represented their truly strongest period in recent years whereby
they undoubtedly were serious contenders. However, in 2012 they were beaten by
Jimmy McGuiness' Donegal playing the most advanced tactical version of the
blanket defence the game had seen. That Donegal side had come through the
toughest draw in recent history, beating Tyrone in Ulster, Cork in the
quarter-final and Kerry in the semi-final. Is it really fair to assume that
defeat to this Donegal side represented a bottle issue? That they hauled themselves
back to a two point deficit after conceding the first two goals and a point
would suggest not.</div>
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As for the 2013
final, they were beaten by a Dublin side whose record in championship and
knock-out league football under Jim Gavin currently reads 29 wins, one draw and
one loss. Can we really credibly say that defeat in a final to this side
represents an issue pertaining to bottle? Equally noteworthy is the fact that
in five attempts in the National League and three in championship, Mayo as yet
have failed to beat Jim Gavin's Dublin.</div>
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With a mere one loss in 31 championship and knock-out league
games, all odds point towards a Dublin victory in this Sunday's final. Of
course, it would be a short memory that would write off how close Mayo came on
both occasions to toppling the Dubs in each of last year's semi-final ties. The
facile manner in which Mayo took Dublin's defence apart for the majority of
their scores over these two games serves as evidence that their players have
the capacity to do likewise again.</div>
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However, as things stand, with Mayo having had to come
through the backdoor for the first time in six seasons, there is no evidence as
yet that Mayo are as good as they were last year or that they have warranted a
place in this final on merit. Their only somewhat noteworthy result has been to
beat one second tier side, Tyrone. Would they have reached the final if they
had had to buck the trend and beat Kerry for the first time in seven clashes
over twenty years, or Jim Gavin's Dublin for the first time in nine league and
championship games? As yet there is no evidence that they would.</div>
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If current patterns hold, on Sunday evening, it will be
declared throughout the country that Mayo have bottled in final once more. In
reality, for the eighth time in a row, they'll most likely have been beaten by
a better side.<br />
<br />
Follow me on Twitter <a class="DashboardProfileCard-screennameLink u-linkComplex u-linkClean" href="https://twitter.com/somearagaa" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #0084b4; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px; outline: 0px; padding-right: 5px; text-decoration: none !important;">@<span class="u-linkComplex-target" style="text-decoration: underline !important;">somearagaa</span></a></div>
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